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Historical and Projected Cropland Impacts of Heatwaves in Central Asia Under Climate Change

Identification

Clé publique

radar:r-f23984a5bd623fb097f7ddfa5af54cac

Auteurs

Tao Li · Fengjiao Song · Jiayu Bao · Philippe De Maeyer · Ye Yuan · Xiaoran Huang · Tao Yu · Sulei Naibi · Anming Bao · Peter L.M. Goethals

Année déclarée

2025

Langue déclarée

en

Type source

article

Première détection

2026-11-14T02:30:03.908587+00:00

Dernière observation des métadonnées

2026-11-14T02:30:03.908587+00:00

Dernière vérification HTTP

Non effectuée

Institutions déclarées par la source

Chinese Academy of Sciences · Ghent University · Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences · State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology · Higher Education Commission

Pays d’affiliation déclarés

BE · CN · PK

Résumé documentaire — langue originale

Abstract Central Asia (CA) is a critical agricultural region, contributing significantly to global food and cotton production, yet it faces increasing threats from extreme heatwaves (HWs) due to global warming. Despite this, the specific impacts of historical and future HWs on CA's cropland remain underexplored. Here, using five bias‐corrected global circulation models from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3b (ISIMIP3b), we present a detailed analysis of CA's cropland exposure to HWs from historical periods (1995–2014) and under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) for 2021–2100. Compared to historical levels, we find that exposure to heatwave frequency could increase by 199% by 2081–2100 under SSP126, while exposure to heatwave duration could rise by as much as 852% and 1143% under SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. Northern Kazakhstan emerges as particularly vulnerable, with the highest exposure levels across scenarios. Interactive effects between climate shifts and land‐use changes are the dominant contributors, accounting for over 50% of total exposure in each scenario. These findings highlight CA's vulnerability to HWs under various climate pathways, emphasizing the urgency of targeted adaptation strategies to protect regional agricultural resilience and, by extension, global food security.

Identifiants

OPENALEX

https://openalex.org/W4408749758

DOI

10.1029/2024ef005595

Repères documentaires

Famille documentaire

article

Types déclarés par les sources

article

Éditeurs

American Geophysical Union

Les mentions d’entités ne constituent pas une preuve de reconnaissance juridique. La juridiction étudiée est distincte du pays d’affiliation des auteurs.

Sources

OpenAlex · Document 1

• Document · https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef005595

Statut documentaire

Pertinence à examiner

Bibliothèque

Cette identité n’est pas encore intégrée à la Bibliothèque juridique.