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Deforestation-induced drying lowers Amazon climate threshold

Identification

Clé publique

radar:r-2f6792f0deaa01b7442e043a8568ebbb

Auteurs

Nico Wunderling · Boris Sakschewski · Johan Rockström · Bernardo M. Flores · Marina Hirota · Arie Staal

Année déclarée

2026

Langue déclarée

en

Type source

article

Première détection

2026-11-14T02:00:15.457317+00:00

Dernière observation des métadonnées

2026-11-14T02:00:15.457317+00:00

Dernière vérification HTTP

Non effectuée

Institutions déclarées par la source

Goethe University Frankfurt · Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt/M · Leibniz Association · Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research · Stockholm Resilience Centre · Stockholm University · University of Potsdam · Universidade de Santiago de Compostela · Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina · Utrecht University

Pays d’affiliation déclarés

BR · DE · ES · NL · SE

Résumé documentaire — langue originale

Abstract Humanity is putting unprecedented pressures on the Amazon forest system through global warming and land use changes 1,2 . As the Amazon forest may undergo self-reinforcing transitions, these pressures could lead to system-wide changes across major parts of Amazonian ecosystems 1–4 . Here we apply a dynamical systems model to assess the local and far-reaching cascading transition risks towards degraded ecosystems in the Amazon biome under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. For these emission scenarios, we constructed how moisture is transported through the atmosphere within the Amazon basin using an established atmospheric moisture-tracking model 5 . Without accounting for deforestation, we find a critical global warming threshold of 3.7–4.0 °C, beyond which up to a third of the Amazon forest risks losing stability. However, when considering deforestation, we find a near system-wide transition of the Amazon forest (62−77% of the area) under the combination of a lower threshold range of global warming of 1.5–1.9 °C and deforestation of 22–28%. The large majority of the simulated transitions is caused by spatial knock-on effects from increasing drought intensities, leading to long-ranging and self-propelling cascades on scales of hundreds to thousands of kilometres. Overall, our results reinforce the need to keep global warming levels below 1.5 °C and halt deforestation, as well as ecologically restore degraded forests to avoid high transition risks across the Amazon forest system.

Identifiants

OPENALEX

https://openalex.org/W7160440433

DOI

10.1038/s41586-026-10456-0

PMID

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42092145

PMCID

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/13233621

Repères documentaires

Famille documentaire

article

Types déclarés par les sources

article

Éditeurs

Nature Portfolio

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Sources

OpenAlex · Document 1

• Document · https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10456-0

Statut documentaire

Pertinence à examiner

Bibliothèque

Cette identité n’est pas encore intégrée à la Bibliothèque juridique.